In the heart of Iran, the historic city of Isfahan is grappling with a host of modern challenges, from pollution and land subsidence to the drying up of its lifeline, the Zayandeh Rood river. Amidst these pressing issues, a new research study led by Mahboobeh Khalafi, a PhD in Future Studies from Imam Khomeini International University, is offering a beacon of hope. Her work, published in the journal ‘مهندسی و مدیریت ساخت’ (translated as ‘Engineering and Construction Management’), presents a foresight model aimed at compiling a vision for Isfahan’s future, with significant implications for the energy sector and urban planning.
Khalafi’s research addresses a critical need in urban development: the ability to anticipate and prepare for long-term challenges. “The increasing complexity of multiple elements in cities has made it difficult to assess the long-term future,” Khalafi explains. Her study employs a meta-synthesis method, reviewing 58 valid articles to extract relevant themes for building a foresight landscape. By surveying 26 experts in future studies and urban planning, Khalafi identified key components for a foresight framework, including extracting strategic questions, managing stakeholders, and creating scenarios.
The foresight model proposed by Khalafi is not just about predicting the future; it’s about shaping it. By engaging citizens and decision-makers in the vision-building process, the model ensures that the resulting strategies meet the expectations of the community. This participatory approach is crucial for cities like Isfahan, which has a rich history but faces significant contemporary challenges.
For the energy sector, the implications are substantial. Isfahan’s struggles with pollution and water scarcity are issues that energy providers must address. By adopting a foresight approach, energy companies can better prepare for and mitigate these challenges, ensuring a more sustainable and resilient urban environment. “This process is a solution to draw a picture for the future of cities,” Khalafi notes, highlighting the model’s potential to guide managers towards a sustainable cityscape.
The research also underscores the importance of stakeholder management and scenario creation. By involving a diverse range of stakeholders, the foresight model ensures that all perspectives are considered, leading to more comprehensive and effective solutions. This collaborative approach can foster innovation and drive progress in the energy sector, as companies work together with urban planners and community leaders to address shared challenges.
Khalafi’s work is a testament to the power of foresight in urban planning. By providing a structured framework for anticipating and addressing future challenges, her research offers a valuable tool for cities and energy providers alike. As Isfahan strives to overcome its current difficulties and build a sustainable future, this foresight model could serve as a guiding light, illuminating the path towards a more resilient and prosperous urban environment.