In the face of rising sea levels and increasingly extreme weather events, coastal and delta cities worldwide are grappling with a growing flood risk. Peter Christiaan van Veelen, a researcher at Delft University of Technology, has delved into this pressing issue, publishing his findings in the journal ‘A+BE: Architecture and the Built Environment’ (translated to English as ‘Architecture and the Built Environment’). His work offers a compelling look at how cities can adapt their existing urban environments to become more resilient, while also creating opportunities for added value.
Van Veelen’s research focuses on the concept of resilience—the ability of urban systems to adapt to changing and extreme conditions. He argues that the increasing vulnerability of urbanized coastal areas is not just a result of climate change, but also due to urbanization, socio-economic changes, and human-induced land subsidence. “It’s not just about reducing risk,” Van Veelen explains. “It’s about seeing adaptation as an opportunity to create more liveable and valuable urban spaces.”
The challenge, however, is how to adapt existing urban environments to anticipate long-term trends and changes that span 50 to 100 years, all while facing deep uncertainty. Van Veelen identifies three main challenges in adapting urban environments. First, understanding when and how coastal urban systems become less resilient and what measures are most effective to improve resilience. Second, using moments of change in urban development and management as windows of opportunity for low-cost adaptation. Third, improving flexibility in design and planning to anticipate future conditions.
To tackle these challenges, Van Veelen applies a resilience-based planning method called the Adaptive Pathways Method (APM). This method helps policymakers explore and develop adaptive strategies by defining the conditions under which policy objectives are no longer attainable and assessing sequences of adaptation actions. Van Veelen tested this method in two flood-prone waterfront areas in Rotterdam, offering valuable insights into the practical application of resilience-based planning.
The case studies revealed that Rotterdam’s land elevation policy for new building plots is expensive and does not address the flood risk of existing homes and businesses. Van Veelen developed and tested two alternative solutions—water robust and keeping water out—and found that a district-wide flood protection strategy provides the most beneficial solution, opening up opportunities for capitalizing on investments in waterfront development.
However, Van Veelen’s research also highlights the complexities and barriers to adaptation. “There’s no smooth transfer between alternatives,” he notes. “A change of strategy, for example from property-level to a district-wide solution, is accompanied by ‘transfer costs’ that create an economic lock-in and is constrained by legal, financial, and institutional barriers.” Overcoming these path dependencies is a major challenge, often requiring a disaster to change the course of an adaptation path.
To address this, Van Veelen introduces an urban dynamics-based adaptation method that focuses on identifying adaptation intervention points, transitions, and transformations. This method helps identify legal or financial arrangements needed to unlock the potential of adaptation paths and assesses opportunities derived from urban development to ‘break through’ path dependencies.
The implications of Van Veelen’s research are significant for the energy sector, particularly in terms of infrastructure development and maintenance. As coastal cities adapt to changing climatic conditions, there will be a growing need for integrated and flexible energy solutions that can withstand extreme weather events and support resilient urban development. This research underscores the importance of forward-thinking planning and investment in resilient infrastructure, which can mitigate risks and create added value for communities and businesses alike.
Van Veelen’s work serves as a call to action for policymakers, urban planners, and industry professionals to embrace adaptive planning and invest in resilient urban development. By doing so, they can not only reduce flood risk but also create more liveable, valuable, and sustainable urban spaces for the future. As the impacts of climate change continue to unfold, the insights from this research will be invaluable in shaping the development of resilient coastal waterfronts worldwide.