In the ever-evolving landscape of coastal and estuarine regions, the threat of compound flooding is becoming increasingly pressing. A recent comprehensive review, led by J. Green of the School of Ocean and Earth Science at the National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, sheds light on the intricate dynamics of these complex events. The study, published in the journal ‘Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences’ (Natürliche Gefahren und Erdsystemwissenschaften), delves into the multifaceted nature of compound flooding, where the confluence of multiple flood drivers can lead to catastrophic outcomes.
Compound flooding occurs when two or more flood drivers, such as fluvial, pluvial, coastal, groundwater, damming/dam failure, and tsunami, combine or occur successively, amplifying the overall impact. Green and his team systematically reviewed 279 studies to understand the mechanistic processes and terminologies used in the literature. The review highlights the need for consistent terminology and approaches, a gap that has hindered the development of a unified framework for understanding and mitigating these events.
The study underscores the importance of considering various precursor events and environmental conditions, such as soil moisture, snow, temperature, fire, and drought, which can exacerbate the effects of compound flooding. “The interaction between these drivers and precursors creates a complex web of variables that must be carefully analyzed to predict and mitigate compound flooding events,” Green explains. This complexity is particularly relevant for the energy sector, where coastal and estuarine regions often host critical infrastructure such as power plants, refineries, and wind farms. The potential disruption of these facilities due to compound flooding can have far-reaching commercial impacts, affecting energy supply chains and economic stability.
One of the key recommendations from the review is the development of modeling frameworks that better couple dynamic Earth systems. This involves creating sophisticated models that can simulate the interplay between different flood drivers and environmental conditions. Such advancements are crucial for the energy sector, as they can provide more accurate predictions and risk assessments, enabling better preparedness and resilience planning.
The review also emphasizes the need for more inter-comparison projects and expanded geographic coverage of research. This broader perspective is essential for understanding the global implications of compound flooding and for developing strategies that can be applied across different regions. “By expanding our research horizons, we can identify commonalities and differences in compound flooding patterns, which will inform more effective mitigation strategies,” Green notes.
As climate change continues to alter weather patterns and sea levels, the frequency and severity of compound flooding events are expected to increase. This makes the findings of Green’s review particularly timely and relevant. The energy sector, with its significant investments in coastal and estuarine infrastructure, stands to benefit greatly from the insights provided by this research. By adopting the recommendations outlined in the review, the industry can better prepare for and mitigate the risks associated with compound flooding, ensuring the resilience of critical energy infrastructure.
The study’s call for designing urban and coastal infrastructure with compounding in mind is a clarion call for the energy sector to integrate these considerations into their long-term planning. This proactive approach can help safeguard investments and ensure the continuity of energy supply, even in the face of increasingly complex and unpredictable environmental challenges.
