In the wake of the dramatic eruption of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai volcano on January 15, 2022, a team of scientists led by Yury P. Korolev from the Institute of Marine Geology and Geophysics, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, has made significant strides in understanding and predicting tsunamis of volcanic origin. Their groundbreaking research, published in the journal ‘Геосистемы переходных зон’ (translated to English as ‘Geosystems of Transition Zones’), focuses on the operational forecasting of tsunamis, a critical advancement that could revolutionize tsunami warning services and mitigate risks for coastal communities and the energy sector.
The eruption of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai volcano sent shockwaves around the world, both literally and figuratively. The explosion generated a massive tsunami that rippled across the Pacific Ocean, causing widespread damage and highlighting the urgent need for improved forecasting methods. Korolev and his team set out to confirm the feasibility of forecasting tsunamis of non-seismic, volcanic origin using an express method of operational forecasting.
At the heart of their study is the recognition that the surface wave generated by the volcanic eruption was a complex interplay of forced (baric) waves, driven by atmospheric pressure changes, and free (gravity) waves, resulting from the disintegration of the disturbance at the source. By focusing on the gravitational component of the surface wave, the researchers were able to compute the tsunami waveform in real-time using data from sea level measurement stations.
One of the most compelling aspects of their research is the practical application of their findings. Korolev explains, “The express method allows us to compute the tsunami waveform at any point in the ocean and near the coast in real-time. This is particularly important for operational forecasting, where timely and accurate information can save lives and reduce economic damage.”
For the energy sector, the implications are profound. Offshore oil and gas platforms, as well as renewable energy installations like wind farms and underwater cables, are vulnerable to the destructive power of tsunamis. Accurate and timely forecasting can enable better preparedness and response strategies, protecting critical infrastructure and ensuring the continuity of energy supply.
The study demonstrated that data from just two DART (Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis) stations, located closest to the volcano, were sufficient to provide an adequate forecast. This finding is crucial for operational tsunami warning services, as it reduces the need for extensive data collection and processing, making the forecasting process more efficient and reliable.
Korolev’s team also highlighted the importance of their method in providing a tsunami forecast regardless of the mechanism of its excitation. This versatility is a significant step forward in the field of tsunami forecasting, as it allows for a more comprehensive and adaptable approach to warning services.
However, the researchers acknowledge that there are still challenges to overcome. Korolev notes, “It remains unclear how adequate the assessment of the amplitude of surface waves is based on the bottom pressure data. This is an area that requires further investigation.”
The research published in ‘Геосистемы переходных зон’ opens up new avenues for improving tsunami warning services and protecting coastal communities and critical infrastructure. As the energy sector continues to expand into offshore and coastal regions, the need for accurate and timely tsunami forecasting becomes increasingly important. Korolev’s work is a significant step forward in this direction, offering a glimpse into a future where tsunamis can be predicted with greater precision and confidence.
