The sprawling network of the Trans Sumatra Toll Road is poised to reshape travel dynamics across the island, and new research suggests that the shift could have significant implications for the aviation and energy sectors. A study led by Andry Yuliyanto from the Institut Teknologi Sumatera delves into how this infrastructure project, coupled with rising airfares, might divert travelers from planes to roads, potentially altering the energy landscape.
The research, published in Teras Jurnal: Jurnal Teknik Sipil, which translates to “Teras Journal: Civil Engineering Journal,” focuses on three key routes: Bandar Lampung to Palembang, Pekanbaru to Padang, and Medan to Aceh. These routes were chosen for their representativeness of travel patterns across Sumatra. The study examines both business and non-business travel, considering factors such as travel time, waiting time, cost, security, and comfort.
Using Stated Preference (SP) techniques and a multinomial logit model, Yuliyanto and his team found that travel costs and time are the most influential factors in travelers’ decisions. “The model clearly shows that the Trans Sumatra Toll Road will impact air travel demand,” Yuliyanto stated. “Non-business travelers, in particular, are more likely to switch to road travel, given the right conditions.”
This shift could have profound commercial impacts. Airlines might face reduced demand, leading to potential route cutbacks or increased competition on remaining routes. Conversely, the energy sector could see a surge in demand for road transport fuels, such as diesel and gasoline, as more vehicles hit the roads.
The research also highlights the inelastic nature of air passengers regarding changes in travel time and costs. This means that even with significant increases in airfares or travel times, passengers may not immediately switch to alternative modes of transport. However, the convenience and cost-effectiveness of the toll road could gradually erode air travel demand.
The findings suggest that the energy sector should prepare for a potential increase in road transport fuel demand. This could drive investments in refineries, distribution networks, and even alternative fuels to meet the growing needs of road travelers. Additionally, the aviation sector might need to innovate, perhaps by offering more competitive pricing or enhancing the overall travel experience to retain passengers.
As the Trans Sumatra Toll Road continues to expand, the insights from this study will be crucial for policymakers, energy companies, and airlines. The research underscores the need for a holistic approach to infrastructure development, considering the interconnectedness of transport modes and their energy demands.
For the energy sector, this research is a call to action. It highlights the need for forward-thinking strategies that anticipate and adapt to changing travel patterns. As Yuliyanto puts it, “Understanding these dynamics is key to ensuring a sustainable and efficient energy future for Sumatra.” The road ahead is not just about concrete and asphalt; it’s about fueling the island’s mobility in a way that balances convenience, cost, and environmental impact.