In the wake of the devastating floods that swept through western and central Europe in July 2021, the construction industry is grappling with how to rebuild in a way that strengthens resilience against future disasters. The Ahr Valley in Germany, where the floods caused at least 135 fatalities and billions of euros in damage, serves as a stark reminder of the importance of this task. A new study published in the journal *Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences* (translated from German as *Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences*) offers a framework for qualitative risk assessment that could significantly impact how we approach the reconstruction of critical and sensitive infrastructures.
The study, led by Dr. A. Truedinger from the Institute of Spatial and Regional Planning at the University of Stuttgart, focuses on the flood risk to a school for children with disabilities located directly on the river Ahr. The research aims to systematize how critical and sensitive infrastructures are defined and provides an easy-to-use framework for determining the flood risk that such infrastructures face.
The framework is designed to help decision-makers choose between on-site reconstruction and resettlement, as well as the protective measures to be taken. “The goal is to focus on the most vulnerable groups and critical infrastructures, as these need particular attention and support for risk reduction and resilience building within the recovery process,” explains Dr. Truedinger.
The commercial impacts of this research are substantial, particularly for the energy sector. Critical infrastructures such as power plants, transmission lines, and distribution networks are vulnerable to flooding and heavy rainfall. The qualitative risk assessment framework can help energy companies identify the most vulnerable points in their infrastructure and prioritize investments in resilience.
Moreover, the framework can guide the reconstruction of other critical infrastructures, such as hospitals, schools, and transportation networks, ensuring that they are better equipped to withstand future disasters. This can minimize downtime and disruption, reducing the economic impact of such events.
The study’s findings could shape future developments in the field by providing a clear, systematic approach to risk assessment. As Dr. Truedinger notes, “This assessment can be used as a basis for deciding between on-site (re)construction and resettlement, as well as the protective measures to be taken.”
In an era of increasing climate variability, the ability to assess and mitigate risk is more important than ever. This research offers a valuable tool for the construction industry and other sectors, helping to build a more resilient future. As we continue to grapple with the impacts of climate change, such tools will be essential in our efforts to adapt and build back better.