In the relentless pursuit of reliable renewable energy, a groundbreaking study has shed light on the real-world challenges of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in harsh environments. Abdulrhman Klifa Al-Hanoot, from the Project Management administration at King Faisal University in Saudi Arabia, has led a comprehensive performance evaluation of a 1179 kWp grid-tied car park solar PV installation in Abqaiq. The findings, published in ‘Results in Engineering’ (which translates to ‘Engineering Results’), offer critical insights for the energy sector, particularly in regions with extreme climates.
The study reveals a significant discrepancy between the predicted and actual energy yield of the solar PV system. Using PVsyst simulation software and real-time monitoring data, Al-Hanoot and his team found that the actual annual energy yield was approximately 24.4% below the predicted value. This shortfall is attributed to a combination of factors, including excessive dust accumulation, elevated ambient temperatures, and system degradation.
“Our Monte Carlo analysis, using 10,000 iterations, confirmed a low probability of the actual output occurring under the simulation’s standard variability assumptions,” Al-Hanoot explained. “This indicates severe underperformance, highlighting the need for improved forecasting accuracy and adaptive system design tailored to extreme climates.”
The study’s integration of deterministic simulation with probabilistic modelling provides a robust methodology for yield prediction and risk assessment. This approach supports improved planning, investment evaluation, and maintenance strategies for large-scale PV systems exposed to challenging climatic conditions.
The commercial implications of this research are substantial. As the energy sector increasingly turns to renewable sources, understanding and mitigating the risks associated with PV system performance in harsh environments is crucial. The methodology developed by Al-Hanoot and his team offers a replicable framework for performance validation, enabling stakeholders to make more informed decisions.
“Our findings underscore the need for routine performance diagnostics and adaptive system design,” Al-Hanoot added. “This will not only enhance the reliability of solar PV systems but also boost investor confidence in renewable energy projects in extreme climates.”
As the world continues to grapple with the challenges of climate change and energy security, this research provides a timely and valuable contribution to the field. By offering a deeper understanding of yield deviations and system underperformance, it paves the way for more resilient and efficient solar PV installations, ultimately supporting the global transition to a sustainable energy future.