In the quest to meet ambitious climate mitigation goals, Europe’s energy retrofit dynamics have been lagging, and a recent study published in the journal *Städte und Gebäude* (Buildings & Cities) offers a fresh perspective on why homeowners might be hesitant to undertake these crucial upgrades. Christoph Schünemann, a researcher at the Leibniz Institute of Ecological Urban and Regional Development in Dresden, has combined psychology and complexity science to unravel the intricate decision-making process behind energy retrofits.
The study reveals that the decision to retrofit is not merely a rational calculation but is heavily influenced by societal factors. “We found that media and word-of-mouth effects play a significant role in shaping the perceived social norm about energy retrofits,” Schünemann explains. This social norm, in turn, greatly impacts homeowners’ decisions. The research employs the psychological Rubicon model as a foundation, developing a qualitative complex system model known as a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) to illustrate the interdependencies between individual decision-making and societal influences.
The model identifies two critical phases in the decision-making process: the motivation phase and the detailed planning, realization, and evaluation phase. Reinforcing feedback loops are predominantly found in the motivation phase, while balancing loops are more prevalent in the latter stages. This insight suggests that policies aimed at encouraging energy retrofits should focus on fostering enthusiasm and trust within society.
Schünemann and his team derive three key levers that policy mixes should address to boost energy retrofit decisions among homeowners. Firstly, raising enthusiasm and trust for energy retrofits within society is seen as the most significant leverage. This can be achieved through positive societal debates that reduce uncertainty and perceived overload. Secondly, shifting the perception of ‘own benefits’ relative to ‘own efforts’ to make retrofits more advantageous for homeowners is crucial. Lastly, addressing the bottleneck of insufficient capacity among specialist workers, contractors, planners, energy consultants, and energy retrofit materials is essential.
The commercial implications of this research are substantial for the energy sector. By understanding the systemic reasons behind homeowners’ decisions, energy companies and policymakers can design more effective strategies to promote energy retrofits. This could lead to increased demand for energy-efficient materials and services, driving growth in the sector and contributing to Europe’s climate mitigation goals.
Schünemann’s innovative approach of combining psychology and complexity science offers promising avenues for future policy advice in complex transformational processes. As the energy sector continues to evolve, such interdisciplinary research will be vital in shaping effective policies and strategies that resonate with homeowners and drive meaningful change.
In an era where climate action is paramount, this research provides a compelling roadmap for engaging homeowners in the critical task of energy retrofitting, ultimately paving the way for a more sustainable future.