In the heart of Indonesia’s bustling East Java, a critical infrastructure project is underway, aiming to slash traffic congestion and boost economic activity. The Djuanda Flyover in Sidoarjo, a National Strategic Project (PSN), is not just about building a bridge; it’s about accelerating progress and mitigating risks in a region choked by high vehicle density. At the forefront of this endeavor is Alfandi Rizki Pratama Rolobessy, a researcher from the Department of Civil Engineering at Brawijaya University, who is employing the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) to assess schedule uncertainty and risk mitigation in accelerated bridge construction.
Rolobessy’s study, published in *Jurnal Pensil* (translated to English as *Pencil Journal*), combines quantitative data from progress reports with qualitative insights from 22 project stakeholders. The goal? To evaluate the probability of meeting the project’s accelerated timeline. “Traffic congestion is a critical issue in Indonesia’s rapidly urbanizing areas,” Rolobessy explains. “This study aims to evaluate the probability of successful schedule acceleration in the Djuanda Flyover project using PERT.”
The initial duration of the project was estimated at 102 days. However, after applying PERT analysis, which considers optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic scenarios, the duration was reduced to approximately 95.32 days. With this acceleration, the probability of meeting the 98-day target completion date stands at 64.8%. While this is a significant improvement, it also reveals a substantial risk of failure to meet the targeted acceleration.
“The findings reveal a significant risk of failure to meet the targeted acceleration, suggesting the need for enhanced risk mitigation strategies and improved scheduling reliability,” Rolobessy notes. This research is not just about numbers; it’s about understanding the commercial impacts and shaping future developments in infrastructure management.
For the energy sector, which often relies on efficient transportation networks for the movement of goods and personnel, the implications are profound. Accelerated bridge construction can reduce downtime, enhance supply chain efficiency, and ultimately drive economic growth. However, the study also highlights the need for better risk mitigation strategies and real-time performance monitoring to increase schedule confidence beyond 90%.
Rolobessy’s work contributes to the broader literature on infrastructure project management, demonstrating how PERT can quantify schedule uncertainty in strategic national infrastructure projects. The recommendations include refining expert judgment techniques, optimizing resource allocation, and implementing real-time performance monitoring.
As Indonesia continues to urbanize, the lessons learned from the Djuanda Flyover project could shape the future of infrastructure development. By leveraging advanced scheduling techniques and enhancing risk management strategies, project managers can ensure that critical infrastructure projects are completed on time and within budget, ultimately driving economic growth and improving quality of life.