In the heart of Ethiopia’s Wolaita Zone, a remarkable transformation is underway, one that could reshape our understanding of ecosystem services and their value to industries like energy. A recent study, published in the journal *Environmental Systems Research* (translated as *Environmental Systems Research*), has uncovered a counterintuitive trend: as the landscape evolves, the value of ecosystem services is not just holding steady, but increasing.
Lead author Selemon Thomas Fakana, of Gambella University’s Department of Environmental Science, and his team have been meticulously tracking land use and land cover changes (LULC) from 1995 to 2025 using Landsat data. Their findings, analyzed through advanced GIS and remote sensing techniques, tell a story of significant ecological recovery. “We’ve seen a substantial increase in vegetation cover and water bodies,” Fakana explains, “which has directly contributed to a rise in the overall value of ecosystem services.”
The numbers are striking. Over the past three decades, vegetation cover has expanded by 512.61 km², while water bodies have grown by 66.57 km². Meanwhile, agricultural land and bare land have decreased, with urban areas seeing only modest growth. This shift has led to a notable increase in ecosystem service values (ESVs), from US$246.75 million in 1995 to US$342.23 million in 2025—a net gain of US$95.48 million per year.
For the energy sector, these findings are particularly relevant. The expansion of water bodies, for instance, is closely linked to hydrological interventions and watershed protection, which are critical for hydroelectric power generation. The Gilgel Gibe III hydroelectric dam, a significant energy project in the region, is a testament to this. “The growth of water bodies highlights the importance of such interventions,” Fakana notes, “and their role in enhancing ecosystem services.”
The study’s use of the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm for supervised classification and the benefit-transfer method for quantifying ESVs adds a layer of sophistication to the analysis. The high Kappa coefficients of the LULC maps further validate the robustness of the findings. Sensitivity analysis confirmed that vegetation and water bodies contributed disproportionately to the increase in ESVs, underscoring the importance of ecological restoration and afforestation efforts.
As the world grapples with declining ecosystem services in many regions, the Wolaita Zone’s story offers a beacon of hope. It demonstrates that sustainable land use planning, ecological restoration, and conservation initiatives can substantially enhance ecosystem services. For the energy sector, this research underscores the importance of integrating ecological considerations into project planning and management.
Fakana’s work provides critical evidence for policymakers and land managers, offering valuable insights to scale up and sustain these efforts. As we look to the future, the lessons from Wolaita Zone could shape the way we approach ecosystem management and energy development, not just in Ethiopia, but around the world.